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Your CEO’s user account is active and accessing the latest R&D reports for a new product at 1am while he’s supposed to be on a flight to Asia. An enterprising young man in the Ukraine is siphoning credit card numbers off the Web for his employer, a criminal syndicate, which compiles and sells them in bulk to the highest bidder. Unless you own a car dealership or hold an executive position with Amazon.com, you’re probably going with “B”, right?

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Ah, if only it were that simple. Unfortunately for CSOs, each one of those diverse scenarios illustrates a trend that is a clear, present and growing danger to corporate security. In spite of the fact that security is finally getting the attention and resources it deserves, the list of threats that CSOs will have to handle during the next few years continues to expand at an alarming rate. And it’s no longer just the antisocial basement-dwelling hacker, cracker or script kiddie behind such attacks. The collection of ne’er-do-wells with an interest in undermining your corporate security has metastasised during the past few years into a multifarious cast of characters: industrial and state-sponsored spies, cyberterrorists, ecoterrorists and international mafiosi, just to name a few.

But does it really matter who’s behind a security breach? Plenty of gee-whiz stories have been written that delve into the culture of the Russian mafia or the potential threat of cyberterrorism, and these issues are usually covered with a breathless fascination resembling the bravura of the bad guys.

Sure, they make for great stories, but they provide little assistance to CSOs in strengthening their defences. “Whether it’s a hacker taking credit card numbers or organised crime, often they’re exploiting the same vulnerabilities,” says Dorothy Denning, professor at the Department of Defense Analysis of the Naval Postgraduate School. “It’s not so much who the actor is — it’s what they’re doing.” Still, there are some definite trends that security executives should pay attention to — evolutionary changes occurring within the underground. Here’s how you should structure your security defences to keep pace.

Convergence Theory Ask any security expert to forecast the future, and after he finishes the requisite hemming and hawing over the impossibility of such a task, he’ll usually profess at least one certainty: that “convergence” will occur. By that, he means that criminal groups will band together to attempt larger attacks, and that those efforts will likely include blended attacks that have a physical and cyber component to them. The threat of a blended attack is one that the intelligence community takes very seriously.

Harold Hendershot, section chief of the computer intrusion section of the FBI’s cyberdivision, characterises the prospect of such an attack as a force multiplier. “Imagine if the 9/11 attacks had been coupled with a denial-of-service attack on telephones in Washington or New York,” he says. “It’s a force multiplier because it increases the perception of damage. [Terrorists] can inflict a lot of physical damage, but if the government is suddenly silent or slow to respond, it creates psychological damage.” Most experts agree that while terrorism groups have indicated an interest in using IT attacks to undermine critical infrastructure (and are using the Internet extensively as a communication medium by burying messages in spam), they haven’t matched up the intent with the capability yet. But it’s likely not too far away. “These are educated, smart, well-funded and reasonably motivated individuals, and there’s a lot they can do,” says Bill Hancock, CSO of telecommunications company Cable & Wireless.

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